- OPEC+ boosts output by 137k bpd in Nov to gain market share.
- Modest hike amid weak demand; Brent below $65/barrel.
- Russia manages increase despite sanctions, refinery attacks.
Saudi Arabia and Russia-led OPEC+ will lift oil production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) aiming to recapture market share. The move made by eight members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Oman, and Algeria—was decided after their online meeting on Sunday. The increase which was lower than what the analysts had anticipated signaled the balancing effort on both sides, that is market stability and not too high supply.
As of April, these countries have raised production by more than 2.5 million bpd. They have turned from cutting supplies into a strategy to offset the impact of the rising oil productions in the US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Argentina. The growth of global demand is very moderate, the International Energy Agency even predicts only a 700,000 bpd increase from 2025 to 2026, while OPEC is even more optimistic projecting a 1.3 million bpd rise in 2025 and a 1.4 million in 2026.
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Jorge Leon from Rystad Energy said, “OPEC+8 did not go for the full 500,000 bpd– increase, which was the worst fear scenario, but took a cautious approach to the surplus risk.” Brent crude was sold at less than $65 per barrel last Friday, marking a decrease of 8% for the week, and the worries of a supply glut have been the main reason for such a price drop.
Russia is the second-largest producer in the OPEC+ group and it is facing some capacity limitations at 9.45 million bpd due to the sanctions, which is a decrease from 10 million before the Ukraine conflict. The bombings of the Ukrainian refineries have caused the domestic processing to decrease and as a result, the export dependence has increased, says the analyst Arne Lohmann Rasmussen. This gradual raise supports the prices which are very important for Russia wars involvements, on the other hand, it avoids the market being flooded.