- Saudi Arabia is likely to raise November crude oil prices for Asia.
- Arab Light crude OSP expected to rise 20–40 cents per barrel.
- The market is influenced by Russian and Iranian sanctions risks and Kurdish exports.
Saudi Arabia, the largest oil exporter globally, is likely to raise November crude oil prices for Asian buyers to align with increases in Middle East benchmarks, although surging supplies may restrict those hikes, refining sources reported on Monday.
According to a Reuters survey of six refining sources, the official selling price for flagship Arab Light crude in November is expected to increase by 20-40 cents a barrel, reaching a range of $2.40 to $2.60 a barrel following significant price reductions for October.
The November OSPs for various crude grades - Arab Extra Light, Arab Medium, and Arab Heavy - may rise by 30-60 cents a barrel relative to October, the survey indicated. These predictions align with a monthly rise of 52 cents per barrel in cash Dubai's premium over swaps up to this point in September, according to Reuters data.
On September 15, the premium reached $3.63 a barrel, marking a six-month high, due to increasing supply risks from potential additional sanctions on Russian oil and Iranian oil. However, the market surge slowed down last week as reports emerged of Iraq's Kurdistan region restarting crude exports, heightening oversupply concerns.
According to a survey respondent, Saudi Arabia is expected to steer clear of significant price increases while discussions with clients for 2026 term supply continue, noting that rising freight rates have restricted refiners' capacity to offer higher payments for crude.
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OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners, is expected to sanction an additional oil production rise of at least 137,000 barrels daily during its gathering on Sunday, prompted by increasing oil prices that motivate it to pursue a larger market share.
Saudi crude OSPs are typically announced around the fifth day of each month, establishing the trend for prices in Iran, Kuwait, and Iraq, influencing approximately 9 million barrels per day of crude intended for Asia.
The major oil company Saudi Aramco determines its crude prices by considering customer suggestions and assessing the fluctuations in its oil's value over the previous month, taking into account yields and product prices. As a matter of policy, officials from Saudi Aramco refrain from commenting on the kingdom's monthly OSPs.