Vietnam is set to become the second-largest economy in Southeast Asia, then ranking behind Indonesia, according to a report by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR). It projects that this latter will be ranked 20th worldwide by 2036.
The forecast has been done by virtue of Vietnam's manufacturing strength, its increasing integration into global supply chains, trade agreements, and diversified export capabilities. The country has outlined employing a 6.5% average annual growth rate for the present five-year plan (2021–2025) to provide further momentum for long-term objectives for 2045 of becoming a high-income nation. This means a sustained growth in per capita income of about 5% every year.
While there are such bright prospects, CEBR cautions that Vietnam is currently confronted with major challenges such as slowdowns in global trade and an aging population. So, for growth to be sustained, the country will be required to advance great policy efficiency and become more adaptive to risks introduced by automation, climate change, and technological disruption.
According to IMF data, in 2024, the GDP of Vietnam reached $571 billion, positioning the country as the third-largest economy of Southeast Asia after Indonesia and Thailand. The IMF forecast goes on to state that the GDP of Vietnam in 2027 will be far from matching that of Thailand, with $690 billion to $692 billion, and then it will overtake it after 2028.
With current projections standing as they are today, if the forecast will obtain, then Vietnam's economic growth will surpass those of Poland, Switzerland, Belgium, and Australia by 2036, representing a major change in the international economic terrain.